Because learning changes everything.® Introduction to Geography Mark Bjelland, David Kaplan, Jon Malinowski, Arthur Getis Copyright 2022 © McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC. Because learning changes everything.® Population Geography Chapter 5 Copyright 2022 © McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC. Overview • Introduction. • Population Growth. • Population Definitions. • The Demographic Transition. • The Demographic Equation. • World Population Distribution • Population Data and Projections. • Population Controls. • Population Prospects. © McGraw Hill 3 Introduction 1 Demography. • The statistical study of human population. Population geography. • Focuses on the number, composition, and distribution of humans in relation to variations in the conditions of Earth space. • Spatial analysis. © McGraw Hill 4 Population Growth 1 • Sometime in early 2012, a human birth raised the Earth’s population to 7 billion people. • On a worldwide basis, populations grow only one way: the number of births in a given period exceeds the number of deaths. • UN projections of the world population for the year 2100 ranged from a low of 9.4 billion to a high of 12.7 billion, with a median value of 10.9 billion. • Nearly all growth between today and 2100 will be in less-developed countries, especially Africa. © McGraw Hill 5 Population Growth 2 Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 6 Some Population Definitions Population measures are made more meaningful by rates and cohort measures. Rates. • Frequency of occurrence during a specified time period. Cohort. • Population group unified by a common characteristic, such as age. Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 7 Some Population Definitions Birth Rate (crude birth rate) Annual number of live births per 1000 population. Influenced by age and sex structure, customs and family size expectations, population policies. High birth rates (≥ 30). • Characteristic of agricultural, rural countries in which a high proportion of the female population is young. Low birth rates (< 18). • Characteristic of industrialized, urbanized countries. Transitional birth rates (18 to 30). • Some developing and newly industrializing countries. Subject to change © McGraw Hill 8 Crude Birth Rates (2019) Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 9 Some Population Definitions Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 1 • Average number of children born to each woman. • In developed countries, replacement levels of fertility are assumed to be 2.1. • On a worldwide basis, the TFR in 2019 was 2.5; in the 1960s, it was 5.0. The more-developed countries have been below replacement levels since the 1980s. • World, regional and national TFR may conceal variations among population groups. © McGraw Hill 10 Projected percentage contributions to world population growth by region, 2020 to 2050 Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 11 Total fertility rate (TFR) 2019 Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 12 Some Population Definitions Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 2 Fertility declines in recent decades. Dramatic declines in many less-developed countries. • Changing cultural values. TFRs below replacement level. • Populations may stabilize or grow due to international migration. Population implosion? • Fertility rates dropping below replacement level in an increasing number of countries worldwide, including less-developed ones. © McGraw Hill 13 Some Population Definitions Total Fertility Rate (TFR) 3 Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 14 Some Population Definitions Crude Death Rate 1 Annual number of deaths per 1,000 population. In the past, varied with levels of development. Dramatic reductions in less-developed countries. • As a group, death rates now lower than in more-developed countries. • Reduction does not always extend to infant or maternal mortality rates. Influenced by age structure of a country’s population. © McGraw Hill 15 Crude death rates in 2019 Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 16 Some Population Definitions Crude Death Rate 2 Zero population growth • Births plus immigration equal deaths plus emigration. • Social and economic consequences. © McGraw Hill © McGraw-Hill Education/Alasdair Drysdale RF 17 Some Population Definitions Mortality Rates Maternal mortality rate. • Maternal deaths per 100,000 live births. • Single greatest health disparity between developed and developing countries. • Vast majority of maternal deaths in developing world are preventable. Infant mortality rate. • Ratio of deaths of infants aged 1 year or under per 1,000 live births. • Significant declines in modern times (better health services). © McGraw Hill 18 Infant Mortality Rates Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 19 Some Population Definitions Death Rates Modern medicine and sanitation have increased life expectancy. • Regional variation in benefits. HIV/AIDS. Forecast to become history’s worst-ever epidemic. Sub-Saharan Africa has been hit hardest. • Food insecurity is rising. • In that hardest-hit region, as much as one-fourth of the adult population in some countries is HIV positive, and average life expectancy has been cut drastically. • Total population still expected to grow (high fertility rates). © McGraw Hill 20 Some Population Definitions Population Pyramids 1 A population pyramid is a powerful tool visualizing and comparing a population ‘s age and sex composition. Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 21 Some Population Definitions Population Pyramids 2 Enable demographers to forecast future population levels. • Reliability of projections decreases with increasing length of forecast. Population profile influences demands on a country’s social and economic systems. Dependency ratio. • Number of economic dependents that each 100 persons in the productive years (aged 15 to 64) must support. © McGraw Hill 22 Population Pyramids for Different Communities Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 23 Population Definitions: Natural Increase and Doubling Time Rate of natural increase. • Birth rate minus death rate, expressed as a percentage. • Excludes migration. Doubling time. Time it takes for a population to double if current growth rate remains constant. • Rule of 70 (divide 70 by growth rate). • World doubling time at 2019 growth rate = 54 years. J-curve. • Depicts exponential (geometric) growth. Can be affected by immigration. © McGraw Hill 24 Population Growth and Approximate Doubling Times Table 5.3 Population Growth and Approximate Doubling Times since A.D. 1 Year Estimated Population Doubling Time (years) 1 250 million no data 1650 500 million 1650 1804 1 billion 154 1927 2 billion 123 1974 4 billion 47 In 2025, the world population may reach 8 billion. This final estimate of doubling reflects assumptions of decreasing and stabilizing fertility rates. No current projections contemplate a further doubling to 16 billion people. Source: United Nations. © McGraw Hill 25 The Demographic Transition Model of the effect of economic development on population growth. • Stage 1: High birth and death rates. • Stage 2: High birth rates and declining death rates. • Stage 3: Declining birth rates and low death rates. • Stage 4: Low birth and death rates. • Stage 5: Death rates exceed birth rates. Devised to describe the population history of Western Europe, may not reflect prospects of contemporary developing countries © McGraw Hill 26 Stages in the Demographic Transition Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 27 World Birth and Death Rates. Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 28 The Demographic Transition A Divided World Converging 1 Introduction of Western technologies of medicine and public health to developing countries quickly lowered death rates, corresponding reductions in birth rates did not immediately follow and world populations soared. Most developing countries are now in stage 3 or 4 of demographic transition. A few linger in stage 2. © McGraw Hill 29 The Demographic Transition A Divided World Converging 2 Many observers point to a continuing and growing demographic divide. • One side: high population growth countries. • Other side: wealthy states with sub-replacement birth rates. Established patterns of both high- and low-fertility regions tend to be self-reinforcing. © McGraw Hill 30 The Demographic Equation Regional population change is a function of natural change and net migration. Population relocation. • Can relieve pressures of rapid population growth. Immigration impacts both: Demographic equation and. Population structures of origin and destination countries. • Emigrant groups are skewed in favor of young singles. © McGraw Hill 31 Principal Migrations Since 1500 John Allen Christopher Sutton, Student Atlas of World Geography, 7th edition, p.36 Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 32 World Population Distribution 1 Uneven population distribution. Almost 90% live north of the equator. • Two-thirds of total between 20° and 60° N. A large majority occupies a small part of the land. People congregate in lowland areas. Continental margins have the densest settlement; yet latitude, aridity and elevation limit attractiveness of many seafront locations. Data: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University, 2005. Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 33 © McGraw Hill 34 World Population Distribution 2 Four clusters of population • East Asia. • South Asia. • Europe. • NE United States/SE Canada. Ecumene • Permanently inhabited areas of the earth. • Has been extended through technology; Example, terracing. Nonecumene • Uninhabited or very sparsely occupied zone. • 35% to 40% of the land surface. © McGraw Hill 35 World Population Distribution Population Density Ecumene: Permanently inhabited areas. The relationship between number of inhabitants and the area they occupy. Crude (arithmetic) density. • Number of people per unit area of land. Physiological density. • Number of people per unit of arable land. Agricultural density. • Number of rural residents per unit of agriculturally productive land. © McGraw Hill 36 World Population Distribution Population Density: Overpopulation 1 Is a value judgment reflecting an observation or a conviction that the resources of an area are insufficient to sustain its present population. • Not the inevitable consequence of high density. Carrying capacity • Number of people an area can support, given the prevailing technology. • Related to level of economic development. © McGraw Hill 37 World Population Distribution Population Density: Overpopulation 2 Can be equated with conditions of life that reflect a continuing imbalance between numbers of people and the carrying capacity of the land. © McGraw Hill 38 World Population Distribution Population Density: Urbanization Transformation from rural to urban status. Rapid growth of cities in developing countries. • UN projections – Nearly all world population increase between 2000 and 2030 will be in urban areas of developing countries. Reduction of arable land. Problems in densely populated cities in developing countries. • Lack of housing, jobs, education, health and social services. © McGraw Hill 39 Population Data and Projections Population data. • Sources: United Nations, World Bank, Population Reference Bureau, national censuses and sample surveys. • May be inaccurate. Population projections. • Estimates of future population size, age and sex composition. • Based on current data which may be suspect. • Not predictions. • High, medium, and low projections may be given. © McGraw Hill 40 © McGraw Hill 41 Population Controls 1 Thomas Robert Malthus (1766 to 1834). • Unchecked population increases geometrically (2, 4, 8, 16,) food production increases arithmetically (2, 3, 4, 5). Equilibrium must be achieved between numbers and resources. Overpopulation will result in a dieback. • J-curve converted to S-curve. • Top of S-curve represents a population size consistent with and supportable by exploitable resource base. Homeostatic plateau. • Population that is equivalent to carrying capacity. © McGraw Hill 42 Each new plateau represents the conversion of the J-curve into an S-curve Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 43 Population Controls 2 Neo-Malthusianism Advocacy of population control programs to improve prosperity and well-being. • Many countries have adopted family planning programs. Cornucopians (Boserup thesis) • Human minds and skills are world’s ultimate resource base. • Believe population growth is a stimulus to development. • Malthus failed to recognize importance of technology in raising carrying capacity of the earth. © McGraw Hill 44 Population Controls 3 Third view • Scientific and technical ingenuity to enhance food production does not automatically appear. • If further advances are made, not all countries or regions have social and political will or capacity to take advantage of them. © McGraw Hill 45 Population Prospects 1 Global fertility and birth rates appear to be falling to an extent not anticipated by pessimistic neoMalthusians and at a pace that suggests a peaking of world populations sooner – and at lower totals – than previously projected. Population (demographic) momentum. Numbers of births continue to exceed deaths even as fertility rates per woman decline. • High concentration of people in the childbearing years. © McGraw Hill 46 Population Prospects 2 Aging Rapidly aging populations in industrialized economies as well as in developing world. • Result of transition from high to low levels of fertility and mortality. • Considered irreversible. Pace is much faster in developing countries. • Will have less time to adjust to consequences of that aging. • Consequences will be experienced at lower levels of personal and national income and economic strength. © McGraw Hill 47 The Progression of the “Boomers” Access the text alternative for slide images. © McGraw Hill 48 Population Prospects 3 Aging Potential support ratio = number of persons aged 15 to 64 per one citizen aged 65 or older. • Potential support ratio has steadily fallen. • 1950: 12 workers/senior citizen. • 2000: 9 workers/senior citizen. • 2050 – Projected: 4 workers/senior citizen. Increasing burdens and obligations on working-age populations. © McGraw Hill 49 Because learning changes everything. ® www.mheducation.com Copyright 2022 © McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC.

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